Warsaw Conference – In Trump’s 3rd year as president, America’s hawkish foreign policy moved past the stagnation of the Cold War by announcing withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) and the Missile Defense Review, …ly following its objectives as the world’s superpower in a monopolar structure to lay grounds for a universal war. The essential part of the new US defense doctrine is the revival of the so-called “Star Wars” Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) which Reagan announced in 1983, but laid aside in 1993 at the close of the Cold War.
Following WWII, those countries weary of the war, prominently the US and the USSR, seeing the continuation of military threats impossible, replaced military threats with political ones to start the Cold War, which lasted until 1993.
Now, Trump has initiated a new round of universal arms race by stressing advanced military technology and investment in modern offensive systems, threatening the world with war and destruction by challenging to space war.
A blend of Trump’s 2019 offensive policy and the NATO’s 2018 Military Strategy – which sees the US as the NATO’s international command center, Germany as the NATO’s Europe command center, and Poland as Trump’s stronghold at the forefront in battling Russia – should bring about a win-win situation in the power equilibrium, so that it can party put the US and Europe at ease over their lack of trust as regards to Russia’s expansionism.
For Trump, security measures should on one hand depict a political will vis-à-vis the incompatibility of hostile and non-aligned countries, and on the other hand, it would provide answers to the Transatlantic challenges in the West’s security areas, especially in the area of energy security.
The Warsa summit is going to discuss a comprehensive, long-term containment of challengese and cryses within Trump’s new offensive security strategy, providing the first push to the West’s coming-out of passivity and stationary status in transregional and global developments, especially over the Middle East, which has yielded to Iran’s influence.
The Polish conference is a stage for the new offensive US strategy, with Trump trying to highlight the issue of counting Iran’s activities in order to lure Arab and African states to the event.
In Trump’s security strategy, Arab, Asian, and African countries should partly guarantee the West’s approach to Russia, China, as well as Iran. As the summit is being launched, many of the 70 states invited will not be standing side by side Russia, China, or Iran, if not against them, leading in practice to some schism between world countreis on one side and Russia, China, and Iran on the other.
The role to be played by Arab, Asian, and African states pivots around the US and Europe’s use of the NATO and new security measures with the help of aligned countries willing to challenge Iran, China and Russia to restrict the latter states’ range of action in political and security areas.
A blind spot in implementing the above-mentioned strategies is the failing, independend_ and even joint_ policies between the US and Europe in the Middle East over the past four decades, especially with regrds to Iran, which have yielded but failure and confusion.
Obviously it os not clear how strongly Moscow, Beijing, and Tehran can surprise the world by allying or avoiding the US in the “Post-Cold War Political and Arms Conflict”.
It is clear that Moscow is on shakier grounds than China due to US and European sanctions, and it would probably not accept reconsideration over Shyria and Crimea in the new circumstances, creating serious threats to the West with new missile tests which have seriously threatened US aircraft carriers, ultimately crushing Europe between future US-Russia scrimmages and ravishing the Old Continent’s security once more.
Beijing, in its right, will not allow the Polish summit to easily do magic for the US and Europe. China has long been preparing for serious US challenges, possessing the upper hand in trade war and maritime power equilibrium.
Tehran has also proven that, despite sanctions, it preserves its regional influence well, making a serious rival in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen.
Under such circumstances, Trump is forced to preserve the unilateral role of the US despite the accompaniment of the NATO in continuing opposition to the European order in order to deprive Europe of its initiative in order to make them move with the US, leaving Europe as in the past without independence.
Considering deep disagreements between many European countries and the US, the Warsaw summit can worsen the schism between the US and Europe, aggravating disagreements over the transfer of energy from Russia to Europe, and even brining about divergeance in the European Union’s workflow among governments and rightwing and populist movements.
It is clear why the US and NATO have chosen Poland for this summit. Compared to other European countries, no country qualifies to play that role as a member to NATO and the EU.
Poland was thrice dissected in 1772, 1792, and 1795 and seized four times, last time of which during WWII in 1939, when it was shared among the Nazi Germany and the former Soviet according to a secret pact.
An anti-Russian vibe has make Poland prone to the US attempts to use it as a pivot for stronger leverage on Europe and fighting Russia. New military agreements with Poland and the deployment of NATO forces over the western borders of Russia, especially along the borders with Lithuania and Kaliningrad, can create firm strongholds against Russia to serve the territorial integrity of Poland.
by Giovanni Sorbello
