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The world is waiting for gray smoke to rise from the White House; Fire in Biden’s hand

Trump set the White House on fire, and for four years the black smoke of this fire was visible in all countries of the world. Trump destroyed the world order with a destructive foreign policy and without a clear plan and purpose, and took the opportunity from the United States to show its power in international relations, and now he is leaving a foreign policy which is more of fire in the hands of Biden.

Biden has no choice but to extinguish the blazing fire. If it is not extinguished, it will first set United States ablaze, and if its flames spread outside the United States, there will be only two choice; either the White House should extinguish the fire or other countries of the world will avoid it by ignoring the United States.

America is suffering from a political disease. It does not matter to any country who is in charge of the White House, but it is important to the world whether Biden can be present in the White House and expect other countries of the world to put out this fire or the world will see gray smoke rising from the White House.

Joe Biden doesn’t feel responsible for his statement, and his attitude has not been promising in the so-called political speeches and positions he had recently, which are also somehow his plan for domestic and foreign policy.

Biden’s remarks indicate that his strategic plan is an immediate return to U.S. authority, paving the way for a return to challenge to Russia and Iran, as well as to weaken china’s economic, and with all indication showing that he is extremely concerned about China’s economic strength.

The weakened U.S. economy requires strategic trading partners, headed by China, and the U.S. cannot count too much on Europe to repair foreign relations and revive its recession.

Europe is engaged in the incessantly of Brexit, covid-19 and economic stagnation, and in at least the next few years it cannot be a suitable ally and strategic partner for the United States.

The rest of the world, even those with strategic ties to the United States over the past decades, has shifted their long-term interest goals with the United States to other alternative goals, such as expanding cooperation with China, because of US aspirations. Two decades ago, Europe decided to create a new separate regional structure from the United States.

Fourteen Asia-Pacific nations recently signed the largest trade agreement to form the largest free trade group in human history with China without US presence. The four countries in this historic agreement are Japan, South Korea,

Australia and New Zealand, partners and allies of the United States. The European Union’s Asian policy has focused on South Asia since 1996.

What was signed on November 15, 2020, as the biggest commercial achievement in history, was the result of the EU agreements in the 2015 ASEAN Charter, which, after 5 years of efforts, formally implemented joint cooperation and is now the basis of political and economic relations. And has provided security for European countries with Southeast Asia and China under a new agreement.

The historic agreement was signed after the 2009 U.S. presidential election, and the new U.S. foreign policy came in as a formidable influence in Southeast Asia. The U.S. plan and actions to protect its interests were aimed at preventing China’s sovereignty in Asian regionalism by creating the APEC Group.

APEC was a means of implementing this policy and was able to establish a multi-regional structural order mixed with political rivalry between China, Japan, India and ASEAN in the form of a free trade zone. But the U.S. had no success because of its lack of knowledge of the region and the competition without China’s program.

Over the past two decades, the United States and the European Union have pursued different strategies on Asian regionalism. The political analysis in Washington since Obama’s era was that by embracing Asia-based regionalism, China would dominate the region, and the U.S. sees such a development as a threat to its national interests.

The only common assessment of Europe and the United States was that economic growth and the democratization of the political systems of the region could be a key condition for a successful change in regionalist strategy. As the United States sought to democratize the region, Germany, on behalf of the European Union, began investing in the integration of countries in the region into a network of civilized society with NGOs and trade unions.

Influenced by Germany, the European Union provided the second and most important major financial assistance to the countries of Southeast Asia for the world’s second largest export region, the world’s third largest investment and the world’s third largest source of imports.

The European Union, with the help of Germany’s ongoing consultations with Southeast Asian countries to involve other countries in the ASEAN development process, has played its part in bringing China, Japan and South Korea into the group; And this business group became the most important part of the German-EU dialogue in Asia and created increasing strategic capacities for the parties.

Southeast Asia, with about 600 million inhabitants and a GDP of more than $1,000 billion, when it stood with China and Europe, created a population equal to one-third of the planet with more than the U.S. GDP and a 50 percent share in the global economy, which will increase dramatically in the next world share.

The event emphasizes the re-globalization process that has appeal to long-term cooperation and investments in the calculations of the world’s active companies, along with regional advantages including low wages and economic growth rates, along with indicators such as security, lack of corruption and rent and bribery.

The centrality of the policy of attitude to the Eastern European Union for the third millennium was able to play a role in combining the regional influence of South East Asia and South Asia in creating institutions with the influence of mutual reaction among actors in the Asia, Germany and Europe regions. While the U.S. has had no positive impact on these trends.

During the various meetings of the EU and ASEAN ministers in recent years, the countries of the two regions had reached a serious consensus in the areas related to climate policy, energy security and counter-terrorism, and the formulation of a joint action plan.

From the American point of view, during these years, there was no common assessment of the regional interests of Asia in the conflict between the different interests of Europe and the United States. That’s why Trump left the Paris Memorandum and issued a decree fulfilling his promise to withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Free Trade Agreement, arguing that it would benefit American workers.

In the global economy, however, there was growing cooperation between Southeast Asia, China, and Europe as a manufacturing hub for light industry, information technology, communication technology, and artificial intelligence, as well as quantum processing.
Even with Biden’s victory, there is still concern in the international community that America is unable to maintain calm in the context of internal and external context.

In his remarks, Biden has a threatening look at China and Russia and a skeptical look at the return to the Paris memorandum and the JCPOA. Repeating the same view, the U.S. has had on China for 12 years ago, since 2014, after Russia’s occupation of Crimea to Moscow, and the JCPOA for the past three years. Play with all three countries in these conditions playing with fire.

Social division has also complicated the domestic and foreign situation in the United States, and if Trump does not stop divisive policymaking and destructive media actions; the Republican and Democratic parties’ differences on domestic and foreign issues will make it hard to get out of the current situation, and the problems without a U.S. solution will set such a fire in the White House that not only will black and gray smoke not come from, Rather, it will throw out fire tabs that will increase the intensity of internal and external tensions.

by Yahya Sorbello

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