Graham Fuller, former head of research and planning department at the Central Intelligence Agency «CIA» posted an article on his blog Saturday offering five major predictions for the Middle East region for 2015.
“Only a fool offers longer term predictions about the Middle East,” he said.
Starting with the so-called ‘Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant’ (ISIL) terrorist group, Fuller said that it will decline in power and influence.
“I have stated earlier that I do not believe ISIS (ISIL) is viable as a state; it lacks any coherent and functional ideology, any serious political and social institutions, any serious leadership process, any ability to handle the complex and detailed logistics of governance, and any opportunity of establishing state-to-state relations in the region,” he justified.
The CIA analyst stressed that ISIL should fail “without massive external, and especially Western, intervention that in some ways only strengthens its ideological claims.”
The idea of ISIS (ISIL) needs to demonstrably fail on its own and in the eyes of Muslims of the region,” he said.
The second prediction was pointing at the increasing Iranian role in the region, anticipating that the US negotiations with Iran will step forward, and the Gulf will be forced to accommodate itself to the reality of a normalized Iran.
“Iran’s influence in the region will also grow in supporting growing regional challenges to Israel’s efforts to keep the Palestinians under permanent domination,” he added.
The third prediction addressed Turkey’s influence that will crumble in 2015, while the fourth noted that Russia will play a major role in diplomatic arrangements in the Middle East.
The fifth one indicated that “Taliban will make further advances towards gaining power within the Afghan government,” in the light of 13-year war in which the US failed to bring stability to the country.
“The Taliban will seek to strengthen their power on the ground this year in order to enhance their powers of political demand in any possible future negotiations over power sharing. They cannot be functionally excluded. Desperately needed stability in Pakistan also depends in part upon such a settlement,” Fuller added.